A prediction that came true…but not for long, and we are thankful for that

Bill Krysinski 

Doctoral Research: Futuring and Innovation (CS875-2003C-01)

Unit 3 Discussion Board 2

Dr. Cynthia Calongne 

Aug 11, 2020

 

 

A prediction that came true…but not for long, and we are thankful for that

In the world of computing, it is fair to say that technology moves exponentially. Gordan Moore, a co-founder of Intel and developer of what is known as Moore’s Law in 1965, stated, “ the number of transistors on a microchip doubles about every two years, and decrease in computer cost by half” (Intel, 2019). Using that as a backdrop, let us take a look at one of the biggest flops in predicting technological advances but were considered big wins for consumers and human-kind around the world. “640K memory ought to be enough for anybody” – Bill Gates (Serpo, 2008)

Legend has it that in 1981, Co-founder of Microsoft, philanthropist and lover of Porche’s, Bill Gates predicted that no one would need more than 640 Kilobytes of computer memory as IBM announced there new personal computer. For a brief time, this prediction was correct, but only a year later did computers exceed that amount of memory. Today a typical computer has 16 to 32 Gigabytes of memory. Four-decades later, memory capacity for a modern-day personal computer or laptop is 50,000 times greater than Bill Gates Prediction.  

nated every aspect of modern life, from technology advances in transportation, logistics, healthcare, and everything in between. It safe to say that Moore’s law has been more accurate than that of Microsoft’s Bill Gates. Computer memory allows processing speeds to stay extremely fast and allow for innovation and economic flexibility throughout the world. As Moore’s law continues to prove itself year in and year out, the world as a whole wins. If Bill Gates was correct, we would not have modern-day advances like the Roku smart TV, Bitcoin, or an Apple Watch. Each one of these advances requires hundreds if not thousands of times more memory than Mr. Gates predicted in 1981.       

 

An interesting fact about the NASA Space Shuttle program, the computer that ran the Space Shuttle, used only 500-kilobyte memory to perform its mission up to the year 1991 (Tomaszewski, 2010).   

 

 

References

 

Intel. (2019). Over 50 Years of Moore’s Law. Retrieved August 9, 2020, from Intel website:

https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/silicon-innovations/moores-law-technology.html

‌Serpo, A. (2008, January 1). Top 10 worst tech predictions of all time. Retrieved August 9, 2020,

from ZDNet website: https://www.zdnet.com/article/top-10-worst-tech-predictions-of-all-time/

 

‌Tomaszewski, P. (2010, March 27). Did You Know? The Space Shuttle Runs On Only One

Megabyte Of RAM! Retrieved August 9, 2020, from CosmoBC.com AstroBlog website: http://astroblog.cosmobc.com/2010/03/27/did-you-know-the-space-shuttle-runs-on-only-one-megabyte-of-ram/

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