Think Tanks

Bill Krysinski 

Doctoral Research: Futuring and Innovation (CS875-2003C-01)

Unit 2 Discussion Board 3

Dr. Cynthia Calongne 

Aug 4, 2020

 

Think Tank Methods

Think tanks are usually associated with research, reviewing and helping to establish policy from everything from government regulations to social justice, from military issues, and everything in between. Their typical organizational structure contains subject matter experts, current and former executives, academics,  and some of the best researchers in their respected discipline. Their research helps to define the policies and influence decision-makers based on the discovery presented. Today we will review several group decision-making methods that think tanks can deploy based on the topics evaluated. Big Data and computer programming languages like R and Python are assisting data analysts with the processing and presentation of the large data sets that experts use for decision-making.  

Because decision making on complex topics is an inherently difficult process, consistency is critical for presenting the results of the decision made. The value-focused thinking methodology is ideally designed for helping decision-makers get “the means to an end” (Kweku-Muata Osei-Bryson & Ojelanki Ngwenyama, 2014). The process helps focus on what the decisions end goal should lead to and how to accomplish that goal. A significant difference with the value-focused approach is the weighing of value. Value is given a criterion and implemented in the algorithm. Also included in the calculation are alternatives and a means-end analysis. The final output for the value-focused thinking method generally creates better decisions.

One of the more commonly Multi-Criteria Decision Aid used today is TOPIS or “Technique of Order Preference Similarity to the Ideal Solution” (Papathanasiou & Ploskas, 2018). The goal of the TOPIS methodology is to review the criteria that will evaluate both the ideal and non-ideal decision to allow the decision-makers the insight on how the various measures can impact the ultimate decision. Papathanasiou and Ploskas (2018) discuss this process in six-steps that begin with the normalizing of the matrix, developing parameters for the weighted model, ending with the rank-ordering of output for the decision-makers to review. The beauty of this process is that it can be repeated and is consistent once the parameters established.  

There are many ways groups make decisions from up and downvotes, to gut instinct, from brainstorming and Delphi techniques, decision making is made better with more information. This information must be presented consistently and, ideally, repeatable. Big Data is the new standard in setting the foundation on which the decision is made. Techniques like TOPIS and value-focused thinking allow think tanks and groups to make more thoughtful decisions that may impact the lives of society in general.  

 

References

Kweku-Muata Osei-Bryson, & Ojelanki Ngwenyama. (2014). Advances in Research Methods for  

            Information Systems Research. Boston, Ma Springer US.

 

 

Papathanasiou, J., & Ploskas, N. (2018). Multiple Criteria Decision Aid. In Springer Optimization and Its Applications. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91648-4

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