A jailhouse tattoo artist, microbiologist, and European engineer walk into a bar. And the World changes!

 

While I do not condone criminal activity, I am always amazed at the ingenuity of the prisoner population. Having 24/7/365 to solve problems is a sure-fire way to cure the boredom in prison. Defining exaptation within the concrete walls of a typical prison, what object can a Bic pen or Sharpie, battery, tape, toothbrush, and a small beard trimmer motor make?  Now throw in an untrained but aspiring artist, and we have a prison-made tattoo parlor. Amazingly, those components can easily be repurposed into something that can cause reflection, strike fear in the hearts of viewers, and a sense of purpose.

Do you remember your last trip to an amusement park or state fair? Was it during the height of the summer months, and you were looking for a way to cool down? As you looked to your left, you saw the ice cream kiosk known as Dippin’ Dots. You ordered your favorite flavor and were amazed by the “Future of Ice Cream.” Nearly 40 years ago, Curt Jones was a microbiologist working in laboratory flash-freezing animal feed using one of the coldest liquids in the world- Liquid Nitrogen.  Through trial, error, lots of yogurt, and nearly 320 degrees below zero liquid nitrogen, frozen BB-sized ice cream balls were born.

It is summertime, and if you may have taken a walk in the park, just cut your grass, or a finished a stroll on the beach. You have picked on at least one hitchhiker along the way. You might not have noticed until you went to take off your shoes and socks, but that hitchhiker is now in your home. In the mid-1940s, George de Mestral saw these hitchhiking seeds and was intrigued by their properties to latch on securely to a host. This serendipitous discovery has changed to the world as he was the creator of Velcro. This multi-use fastening method is used almost everywhere today, including in space by NASA astronauts.   

A jailhouse tattoo artist, microbiologist, and European engineer walk into a bar.  Now the world is a little better for each of these inventions using serendipity, exaptation, trial, and error. These inventions occurred out of necessity and curiosity. The takeaway here improvement is all around us. There is always a better way to do something, using the power of Grit, and never giving up to solve a problem may lead to the next worldwide phenomenon.  

I want to be a Billionaire..So Freaking Bad...

Here is the list of my fifty dream items in the five categories for this week's assignment. Looking at the exercise, I found that it was more difficult for me to decide on the areas within the Job and religious areas. I am not a very spiritual or religious person even though I was raised in the Roman Catholic religion. Having visited many countries around the world, I know how important religion is in the daily lives of the rest of the world. I found the home the easiest to complete because I guess I am more materialistic than I should be. As far as education goes, many of my areas are obtainable and I should begin to take the time to reach my dreams in that area. 

 

Education:
1	I would learn Japanese and be fluent in speaking
2	I would how to play the harmonica
3	I would re-learn to code in a programming language
4	I would learn how to sail a sailboat
5	I would learn how to drive a sports car (ideally a Porsche 911 GT 3)
6	I would learn how to SCUBA dive
7	I would teach military veterans to be better prepared for the civilian world
8	I would learn conversational Polish and meet up with my Polish Family in Warsaw
9	I would research various cults to learn how influential speakers can impact the lives of the followers
10	I would become a Shaolin Monk and learn Kung Fu
Job or Research:
1	I want to become a small business owner
2	I would like to see how many jobs I could get fired from
3	I would like to run a US Air Force veterans, not for profit
4	I would like to be a professor of Computer Science  that works on overseas military installations
5	I would like to participate in the Peace Corps with my wife and children
6	I would develop a project that would help provide education to the underserved
7	I would like to train incarcerated individuals skill and provide an opportunity for normalization upon release
8	Create a methodology for students in Higher Ed to provide training for an underserved population so they can gain real-world experience
9	Create a go-fund-me like page for a single wish for anyone in the entire world
10	I would build miniature movie sets
Philosophical or Religious
1	I would like to pray in the Angkor Wat Hindu Temple in Cambodia
2	I would like to pray in the Fushimi Inari Shinto Shrine in Kyoto, Japan
3	I would like to sail with the Sea Org in the church of Scientology
4	I would like to  read the Golden Plates that Joseph Smith used to write the Book of Mormon
5	I would like to make a prayer on the Wailing Wall in Jerusalem
6	I would like to make a pilgrimage to Mecca
7	I would participate in the Day of the Dead in Mexico
8	I would like to drum in the Okinawan Festival known as Obon in an Eisa festival
9	Sever as Crewe Master on a Mardi Gras Float in New Orleans
10	I would visit the "Beast-Jesus" Ecce Homo (Behold the Man) painting that was restored by Cecilia Gimenez
Travel:
1	I would take an around the world cruise with my family and closest friends
2	I would visit my US Air Force buddies wherever they live around the world
3	I would visit the Beaches of Normandy, France to visit Omaha Beach
4	I would visit my homeland of Poland to visit family that still remains
5	I would visit the Auschwitz-Birkenau Museum in Poland
6	I would like to have a visit aboard an alien spacecraft (minus the probing)
7	See the Northern Lights from Iceland
8	I would like to explore Area-51 with an all-access pass
9	I would visit the International Space Station
10	I would like to visit North Korea and visit the Masikryong Ski Resort
Home:
1	I would like a treehouse in treetops of Belize
2	I would like to own Neverland Ranch in California
3	I would add a bowling alley and classic arcade to my basement man cave
4	I would like a glass-walled infinity pool off the cliff of Northern Italy
5	I would like an underwater master bedroom in a house in the Mediterranean
6	I would like to have a Star Wars memorabilia museum
7	I would like to own Frank Lloyd Wright's Fallingwater in Pennsylvania
8	Would like to own Mark Twain House in Hartford, CT
9	I would have a garage-like Jay Leno's with a multi-million dollar collection of cars
10	I would like to have purchase Daryl Hall's House (from Hall and Oates fam) and have him perform his webcast for me and the world

Fall from grace: From Number 2 to a memory in less than 50 years - Borders Bookstore

Fall from grace: From Number 2 to a memory in less than 50 years - Borders Bookstore  

 

For nearly forty-years, Borders Bookstores, also known as Borders Group, Inc., were a hometown anchor in the brick-and-mortar space of book retailers. Borders Bookstore was founded in 1971 in Ann Arbor, Michigan, by recent graduates of the University of Michigan and brothers Thomas and Louis Borders. The Borders Brothers innovated a retail space for booksellers never seen before their first store opening. At their height of greatness in 1998, they were the second-largest book retailer in the United States, only to Barnes and Noble Booksellers, with nearly 1,200 stores, 20,000 employees, and  $3 billion in sales, $4.7 billion adjusted for inflation (Ton & Raman, 2003).   

A series of serious miss-steps spiraled out of control for Borders. Culminating in 2011, where Borders Goup, Inc. filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy and converted to Chapter 7 when investors were not able to be located during liquidation  (Hooper & Rawls, 2014). Societal shifts in how consumers were looking to participate in the online economy were changing the retail space. New challengers to Borders' physical storefront business model were beginning to shake up the traditional business model for the retail business. By the mid 1990's Amazon.com had started to be a significant player in the online bookstore retailer space.  Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon.com,  was an early adopter of the online-only storefront model. Many executives across many retail companies were either too slow or did not recognize the shift in the consumers' desire to move to online storefronts. Little attention was given to their online e-commerce presence at Borders.

Borders executives doubled down with their physical presence with international expansion into Europe, Asia, and Australia. Their major competitor did just the opposite and limited expansion to only the US market, fine-tuned their online marketplace, and developed a competitor to Amazon's digital e-reader technology. Borders' also purchased competitor Waldenbooks.  The purchase of Waldenbooks increased the physical presence Borders in America's shopping mall but was another miscalculated step by executives. They did not correctly anticipate the decline of the modern shopping mall.

                                               Sales decline of physical books (Trachtenberg, 2011)

Another substantial failure in terms of business decisions was to use Amazon Web Services for its digital marketplace. They had to share part of every sale with Amazon, significantly impacted Border's ability to be profitable. Also, Barnes and Noble and Amazon created a new technology to allow readers digital access to thousands of books via e-readers. Borders took several years to partner with vendors to make sub-par e-readers and did not make an impact on their profitability.

As an outsider looking in, complacency played a significant role in the demise of Borders Group, Inc. Focusing on what has worked in the past, not scenario planning for the future, and being inflexible due to the structure of pre-dot com industries are the factors that have led to many retailers closing their doors over the last two decades. Scenario planning has its merits in the success of looking at the future. Scenario planning, when conducted properly, needs to take into account the impact on the social effects of change. Change at the social level, seems to be an area that may be taking for granted or even ignored. The past several generations have seen dramatic shifts in how technology has changed seemingly overnight. These changes are not slowing down and the need for quick and adaptive planning to stay ahead of the curve. Alan Lakein once said, "Planning is bringing the future into the present so that you can do something about it now." These words summarize the power and the need to plan to avoid potential mistakes that plagued the Boroders Goup, Inc., in their last decades of existence. Whereas Barnes and Noble, with over 100 years of experience, have continued to stay positioned to serve their customers due to proper planning and execution.

 

 

 

 

References

Hooper, Will and Rawls, Mary Katherine, "Borders Group, Inc.'s Final Chapter: How A Bookstore Giant Failed In The Digital Age" (2014). Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Case Studies. http://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_studlawbankruptcy/38

Trachtenberg, J. A. (2011, July 20). Barnes & Noble Focuses on E-Books. Wall Street Journal. Retrieved from https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303795304576453882840821172

Ton, Z., & Raman, A. (2003). Borders Group, Inc. Harvard Business Review, 9(601–037). Retrieved          from https://hbsp.harvard.edu/product/601037-PDF-ENG?Ntt=Borders&itemFindingMethod=Search

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A prediction that came true…but not for long, and we are thankful for that

Bill Krysinski 

Doctoral Research: Futuring and Innovation (CS875-2003C-01)

Unit 3 Discussion Board 2

Dr. Cynthia Calongne 

Aug 11, 2020

 

 

A prediction that came true…but not for long, and we are thankful for that

In the world of computing, it is fair to say that technology moves exponentially. Gordan Moore, a co-founder of Intel and developer of what is known as Moore’s Law in 1965, stated, “ the number of transistors on a microchip doubles about every two years, and decrease in computer cost by half” (Intel, 2019). Using that as a backdrop, let us take a look at one of the biggest flops in predicting technological advances but were considered big wins for consumers and human-kind around the world. “640K memory ought to be enough for anybody” – Bill Gates (Serpo, 2008)

Legend has it that in 1981, Co-founder of Microsoft, philanthropist and lover of Porche’s, Bill Gates predicted that no one would need more than 640 Kilobytes of computer memory as IBM announced there new personal computer. For a brief time, this prediction was correct, but only a year later did computers exceed that amount of memory. Today a typical computer has 16 to 32 Gigabytes of memory. Four-decades later, memory capacity for a modern-day personal computer or laptop is 50,000 times greater than Bill Gates Prediction.  

nated every aspect of modern life, from technology advances in transportation, logistics, healthcare, and everything in between. It safe to say that Moore’s law has been more accurate than that of Microsoft’s Bill Gates. Computer memory allows processing speeds to stay extremely fast and allow for innovation and economic flexibility throughout the world. As Moore’s law continues to prove itself year in and year out, the world as a whole wins. If Bill Gates was correct, we would not have modern-day advances like the Roku smart TV, Bitcoin, or an Apple Watch. Each one of these advances requires hundreds if not thousands of times more memory than Mr. Gates predicted in 1981.       

 

An interesting fact about the NASA Space Shuttle program, the computer that ran the Space Shuttle, used only 500-kilobyte memory to perform its mission up to the year 1991 (Tomaszewski, 2010).   

 

 

References

 

Intel. (2019). Over 50 Years of Moore’s Law. Retrieved August 9, 2020, from Intel website:

https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/silicon-innovations/moores-law-technology.html

‌Serpo, A. (2008, January 1). Top 10 worst tech predictions of all time. Retrieved August 9, 2020,

from ZDNet website: https://www.zdnet.com/article/top-10-worst-tech-predictions-of-all-time/

 

‌Tomaszewski, P. (2010, March 27). Did You Know? The Space Shuttle Runs On Only One

Megabyte Of RAM! Retrieved August 9, 2020, from CosmoBC.com AstroBlog website: http://astroblog.cosmobc.com/2010/03/27/did-you-know-the-space-shuttle-runs-on-only-one-megabyte-of-ram/

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Scenario Planning versus Traditional Forecasting

 

Bill Krysinski 

Doctoral Research: Futuring and Innovation (CS875-2003C-01)

Unit 3 Discussion Board

Dr. Cynthia Calongne 

Aug 11, 2020

 

Scenario Planning versus Traditional Forecasting

Planning takes on many lifeforms, and many methods exist to predict possible outcomes, enlighten the ill-informed, and everything in-between. Information presented by a planning process can make the impossible seem possible or inhibit the next move due to fear of the unknown. As we look at both the scenario-based planning and the traditional forecasting model, there are several advantages and disadvantages that we will need to discuss to make a more informed decision on when to use each and to level-set expectations on what the results mean. A plan is just that a plan, since no one can accurately predict the future, using information, and deploying the best model will help users of the predictions make more accurate and informed decisions.   

Scenario planning is a tool designed to allow decision-makers an opportunity to explore “what-if” situations and help to determine a combination of likely, not likely, and even outlandish alternatives. It is designed for organizations to becoming more flexible in planning because various assumptions can be addressed in the process, particularly when historical data is not available.  

The advantages of scenario-based process include allowing the group to think creatively about uncertain times that exist or could exist. Scenario-based planning also allows the team to look at different perspectives and see if there are strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and potential threats that could be looked at for better outcomes (Schwenker, Wulf, 2012). Users can set various assumptions when making developing potential outcomes.  

There are several critical disadvantages of scenario-based planning. If accurate predictions are necessary, then scenario-based planning is not the best method to employ. Wade (2012) stated that only “illuminate different ways the future may unfold.” Because no one is a soothsayer, all of the parameters that could be involved with setting up a scenario cannot be known, thus impacting the confidence of the results.  

Traditional forecasting is defined as “predicting the future as accurately as possible” (Hyndman & Athanasopoulos, 2018). Using all necessary historical datasets and any future information that would impact the analysis, forecasting helps to present a more accurate picture for conclusions to be drawn from.

Advantages of forecasting primarily include Once data is available, making data representation data more efficient. Some forecasts can be extremely accurate, based on historical data analysis and trends. Take forecasting the weather in a desert climate. Hundreds of days of data can be reviewed and making the accurate five-day weather forecast a much easier task.     

Disadvantages forecasting brings to the decision-makers is that it might no paint the entire picture because we are using hard data and cannot take into account issues with disruptions and changes as quickly as a scenario. So forecasting is usually seen as a more rigid, facts only planning tool.  

 

References

‌ Hyndman, R., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2018). Forecasting : principles and practice (2nd ed.). Heathmont, Vic.: Otexts.

Schwenker, B., & Wulf, T. (Eds.). (2015). Scenario-based Strategic Planning Developing Strategies in an Uncertain World. Germany: Wiesbaden Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden Gmbh Springer Gabler.

‌ Wade, W. (2012). Scenario planning : a field guide to the future. Hoboken: Wiley.

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In One Year, From an Accident to 2000+ Uses - The Norm Larsen Story

You may have never heard of the inventor Norman “Norm” Larsen. Still, one can almost guarantee that you have used or have the successful fortieth iteration of his most famous invention in your garage or your storage cabinet. It is in a blue and yellow spray can and initially designed to displace water. It has helped get a phyton free from a sewer in Thailand, it has removed thousands of bumper stickers from the back of our cars, and even can unstick your frozen hinge in your bedroom closet. Still do not know what this invention is? It is WD-40.  

        In the early 1950s, Norm Larsen was an American chemist that was working for Rocket Chemical Company with his massive team of two individuals in southern California. Norman, Gordon Dawson, and John Gregory made up the entire team at the chemical company (wd40company.com, n.d.). Rocket Chemical Company was working on a “rust-prevention solvent” for the aerospace industry. For some perspective, air travel was only in its fiftieth year of existence, and the space race was just about to begin. Sputnik was a mear four years of being hurled into space and changing human-kind forever. Convair Aerospace Company charged Rocket Chemical Company with developing a solvent that would protect aircraft and the outer shell of the Atlas missile used by the National Aeronautical and Space Agency (NASA).

        Norm and his team got to work on the project in 1953. Over the course of that year, thirty-nine failures presented the opportunity to reach success at number forty. Hence the name WD-40, which stands for Water Displacement 40th attempt (Benna, 2015). Five years later, WD-40 as commercialized by using aerosol cans that we still use today.

‌            By all accounts, Norm was a self-taught chemist and developed the basis of his repellent formula in his home. Technological forces were the primary impedance for the creation of WD-40.  His zest for understanding and solving problems helped to propel his curiosity to continue the quest to create the repellent formula. With the formula now perfected, Norm accepted a $500 bonus and gave the rights and secret formula to the Rocket Chemical Company (Engstrand. 2014). Norm was not phased by providing the rights to his invention. Like a true inventor, he was looking for the next problem to solve and creating a new company shortly after leaving Rocket Chemical Company.

        According to WD40.com (n.d.), one-million cans are sold every week. Four out of five households in America have at least one can of WD-40. WD-40 bolsters the claim that there are over 2000 documented uses for there product. Never was there a truer saying than “If at first, you don’t succeed, try, try, try again” – Fredrick Marryat. Norm Larsen was the embodiment of a never give up attitude and throughout 1953, 40 times a charm, and the rest is history. Norm only was able to see the fruits of his labor for a few years. He died at the age of 47 years old, and 50 years later, WD-40 is a world-wide phenomenon that is still going strong.     

Link to the WD-40 History Timeline and Infographics: https://www.wd40.com/history/#:~:text=The%20product%20made%20its%20first,plant%20to%20use%20at%20home. and https://www.wd40company.com/our-company/our-history/

 

References

 

‌ Benna, S. (2015, July 22). This billion-dollar company failed 39 times before becoming successful. Retrieved August 5, 2020, from Business Insider website: https://www.businessinsider.com/wd-40-failed-39-times-before-becoming-successful-2015-7

Engstrand, I. (2014). WD-40: San Diego’s Marketing Miracle. Journal of San Diego History, 60(4), 253–270. Retrieved from http://sandiegohistory.org/sites/default/files/journal/v60-4/v60-4engstrand.pdf

The WD-40 Company history: It all began in San Diego, California. (2009). Retrieved from Wd40company.com website: https://www.wd40company.com/our-company/our-history/

WD-40 History | Learn the Stories Behind the WD-40 Brand | WD-40. (n.d.). Retrieved August 5, 2020, from www.wd40.com website: https://www.wd40.com/history/#:~:text=The%20product%20made%20its%20first

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Think Tanks

Bill Krysinski 

Doctoral Research: Futuring and Innovation (CS875-2003C-01)

Unit 2 Discussion Board 3

Dr. Cynthia Calongne 

Aug 4, 2020

 

Think Tank Methods

Think tanks are usually associated with research, reviewing and helping to establish policy from everything from government regulations to social justice, from military issues, and everything in between. Their typical organizational structure contains subject matter experts, current and former executives, academics,  and some of the best researchers in their respected discipline. Their research helps to define the policies and influence decision-makers based on the discovery presented. Today we will review several group decision-making methods that think tanks can deploy based on the topics evaluated. Big Data and computer programming languages like R and Python are assisting data analysts with the processing and presentation of the large data sets that experts use for decision-making.  

Because decision making on complex topics is an inherently difficult process, consistency is critical for presenting the results of the decision made. The value-focused thinking methodology is ideally designed for helping decision-makers get “the means to an end” (Kweku-Muata Osei-Bryson & Ojelanki Ngwenyama, 2014). The process helps focus on what the decisions end goal should lead to and how to accomplish that goal. A significant difference with the value-focused approach is the weighing of value. Value is given a criterion and implemented in the algorithm. Also included in the calculation are alternatives and a means-end analysis. The final output for the value-focused thinking method generally creates better decisions.

One of the more commonly Multi-Criteria Decision Aid used today is TOPIS or “Technique of Order Preference Similarity to the Ideal Solution” (Papathanasiou & Ploskas, 2018). The goal of the TOPIS methodology is to review the criteria that will evaluate both the ideal and non-ideal decision to allow the decision-makers the insight on how the various measures can impact the ultimate decision. Papathanasiou and Ploskas (2018) discuss this process in six-steps that begin with the normalizing of the matrix, developing parameters for the weighted model, ending with the rank-ordering of output for the decision-makers to review. The beauty of this process is that it can be repeated and is consistent once the parameters established.  

There are many ways groups make decisions from up and downvotes, to gut instinct, from brainstorming and Delphi techniques, decision making is made better with more information. This information must be presented consistently and, ideally, repeatable. Big Data is the new standard in setting the foundation on which the decision is made. Techniques like TOPIS and value-focused thinking allow think tanks and groups to make more thoughtful decisions that may impact the lives of society in general.  

 

References

Kweku-Muata Osei-Bryson, & Ojelanki Ngwenyama. (2014). Advances in Research Methods for  

            Information Systems Research. Boston, Ma Springer US.

 

 

Papathanasiou, J., & Ploskas, N. (2018). Multiple Criteria Decision Aid. In Springer Optimization and Its Applications. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91648-4

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