A prediction that came true…but not for long, and we are thankful for that

Bill Krysinski 

Doctoral Research: Futuring and Innovation (CS875-2003C-01)

Unit 3 Discussion Board 2

Dr. Cynthia Calongne 

Aug 11, 2020

 

 

A prediction that came true…but not for long, and we are thankful for that

In the world of computing, it is fair to say that technology moves exponentially. Gordan Moore, a co-founder of Intel and developer of what is known as Moore’s Law in 1965, stated, “ the number of transistors on a microchip doubles about every two years, and decrease in computer cost by half” (Intel, 2019). Using that as a backdrop, let us take a look at one of the biggest flops in predicting technological advances but were considered big wins for consumers and human-kind around the world. “640K memory ought to be enough for anybody” – Bill Gates (Serpo, 2008)

Legend has it that in 1981, Co-founder of Microsoft, philanthropist and lover of Porche’s, Bill Gates predicted that no one would need more than 640 Kilobytes of computer memory as IBM announced there new personal computer. For a brief time, this prediction was correct, but only a year later did computers exceed that amount of memory. Today a typical computer has 16 to 32 Gigabytes of memory. Four-decades later, memory capacity for a modern-day personal computer or laptop is 50,000 times greater than Bill Gates Prediction.  

nated every aspect of modern life, from technology advances in transportation, logistics, healthcare, and everything in between. It safe to say that Moore’s law has been more accurate than that of Microsoft’s Bill Gates. Computer memory allows processing speeds to stay extremely fast and allow for innovation and economic flexibility throughout the world. As Moore’s law continues to prove itself year in and year out, the world as a whole wins. If Bill Gates was correct, we would not have modern-day advances like the Roku smart TV, Bitcoin, or an Apple Watch. Each one of these advances requires hundreds if not thousands of times more memory than Mr. Gates predicted in 1981.       

 

An interesting fact about the NASA Space Shuttle program, the computer that ran the Space Shuttle, used only 500-kilobyte memory to perform its mission up to the year 1991 (Tomaszewski, 2010).   

 

 

References

 

Intel. (2019). Over 50 Years of Moore’s Law. Retrieved August 9, 2020, from Intel website:

https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/silicon-innovations/moores-law-technology.html

‌Serpo, A. (2008, January 1). Top 10 worst tech predictions of all time. Retrieved August 9, 2020,

from ZDNet website: https://www.zdnet.com/article/top-10-worst-tech-predictions-of-all-time/

 

‌Tomaszewski, P. (2010, March 27). Did You Know? The Space Shuttle Runs On Only One

Megabyte Of RAM! Retrieved August 9, 2020, from CosmoBC.com AstroBlog website: http://astroblog.cosmobc.com/2010/03/27/did-you-know-the-space-shuttle-runs-on-only-one-megabyte-of-ram/

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Scenario Planning versus Traditional Forecasting

 

Bill Krysinski 

Doctoral Research: Futuring and Innovation (CS875-2003C-01)

Unit 3 Discussion Board

Dr. Cynthia Calongne 

Aug 11, 2020

 

Scenario Planning versus Traditional Forecasting

Planning takes on many lifeforms, and many methods exist to predict possible outcomes, enlighten the ill-informed, and everything in-between. Information presented by a planning process can make the impossible seem possible or inhibit the next move due to fear of the unknown. As we look at both the scenario-based planning and the traditional forecasting model, there are several advantages and disadvantages that we will need to discuss to make a more informed decision on when to use each and to level-set expectations on what the results mean. A plan is just that a plan, since no one can accurately predict the future, using information, and deploying the best model will help users of the predictions make more accurate and informed decisions.   

Scenario planning is a tool designed to allow decision-makers an opportunity to explore “what-if” situations and help to determine a combination of likely, not likely, and even outlandish alternatives. It is designed for organizations to becoming more flexible in planning because various assumptions can be addressed in the process, particularly when historical data is not available.  

The advantages of scenario-based process include allowing the group to think creatively about uncertain times that exist or could exist. Scenario-based planning also allows the team to look at different perspectives and see if there are strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and potential threats that could be looked at for better outcomes (Schwenker, Wulf, 2012). Users can set various assumptions when making developing potential outcomes.  

There are several critical disadvantages of scenario-based planning. If accurate predictions are necessary, then scenario-based planning is not the best method to employ. Wade (2012) stated that only “illuminate different ways the future may unfold.” Because no one is a soothsayer, all of the parameters that could be involved with setting up a scenario cannot be known, thus impacting the confidence of the results.  

Traditional forecasting is defined as “predicting the future as accurately as possible” (Hyndman & Athanasopoulos, 2018). Using all necessary historical datasets and any future information that would impact the analysis, forecasting helps to present a more accurate picture for conclusions to be drawn from.

Advantages of forecasting primarily include Once data is available, making data representation data more efficient. Some forecasts can be extremely accurate, based on historical data analysis and trends. Take forecasting the weather in a desert climate. Hundreds of days of data can be reviewed and making the accurate five-day weather forecast a much easier task.     

Disadvantages forecasting brings to the decision-makers is that it might no paint the entire picture because we are using hard data and cannot take into account issues with disruptions and changes as quickly as a scenario. So forecasting is usually seen as a more rigid, facts only planning tool.  

 

References

‌ Hyndman, R., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2018). Forecasting : principles and practice (2nd ed.). Heathmont, Vic.: Otexts.

Schwenker, B., & Wulf, T. (Eds.). (2015). Scenario-based Strategic Planning Developing Strategies in an Uncertain World. Germany: Wiesbaden Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden Gmbh Springer Gabler.

‌ Wade, W. (2012). Scenario planning : a field guide to the future. Hoboken: Wiley.

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In One Year, From an Accident to 2000+ Uses - The Norm Larsen Story

You may have never heard of the inventor Norman “Norm” Larsen. Still, one can almost guarantee that you have used or have the successful fortieth iteration of his most famous invention in your garage or your storage cabinet. It is in a blue and yellow spray can and initially designed to displace water. It has helped get a phyton free from a sewer in Thailand, it has removed thousands of bumper stickers from the back of our cars, and even can unstick your frozen hinge in your bedroom closet. Still do not know what this invention is? It is WD-40.  

        In the early 1950s, Norm Larsen was an American chemist that was working for Rocket Chemical Company with his massive team of two individuals in southern California. Norman, Gordon Dawson, and John Gregory made up the entire team at the chemical company (wd40company.com, n.d.). Rocket Chemical Company was working on a “rust-prevention solvent” for the aerospace industry. For some perspective, air travel was only in its fiftieth year of existence, and the space race was just about to begin. Sputnik was a mear four years of being hurled into space and changing human-kind forever. Convair Aerospace Company charged Rocket Chemical Company with developing a solvent that would protect aircraft and the outer shell of the Atlas missile used by the National Aeronautical and Space Agency (NASA).

        Norm and his team got to work on the project in 1953. Over the course of that year, thirty-nine failures presented the opportunity to reach success at number forty. Hence the name WD-40, which stands for Water Displacement 40th attempt (Benna, 2015). Five years later, WD-40 as commercialized by using aerosol cans that we still use today.

‌            By all accounts, Norm was a self-taught chemist and developed the basis of his repellent formula in his home. Technological forces were the primary impedance for the creation of WD-40.  His zest for understanding and solving problems helped to propel his curiosity to continue the quest to create the repellent formula. With the formula now perfected, Norm accepted a $500 bonus and gave the rights and secret formula to the Rocket Chemical Company (Engstrand. 2014). Norm was not phased by providing the rights to his invention. Like a true inventor, he was looking for the next problem to solve and creating a new company shortly after leaving Rocket Chemical Company.

        According to WD40.com (n.d.), one-million cans are sold every week. Four out of five households in America have at least one can of WD-40. WD-40 bolsters the claim that there are over 2000 documented uses for there product. Never was there a truer saying than “If at first, you don’t succeed, try, try, try again” – Fredrick Marryat. Norm Larsen was the embodiment of a never give up attitude and throughout 1953, 40 times a charm, and the rest is history. Norm only was able to see the fruits of his labor for a few years. He died at the age of 47 years old, and 50 years later, WD-40 is a world-wide phenomenon that is still going strong.     

Link to the WD-40 History Timeline and Infographics: https://www.wd40.com/history/#:~:text=The%20product%20made%20its%20first,plant%20to%20use%20at%20home. and https://www.wd40company.com/our-company/our-history/

 

References

 

‌ Benna, S. (2015, July 22). This billion-dollar company failed 39 times before becoming successful. Retrieved August 5, 2020, from Business Insider website: https://www.businessinsider.com/wd-40-failed-39-times-before-becoming-successful-2015-7

Engstrand, I. (2014). WD-40: San Diego’s Marketing Miracle. Journal of San Diego History, 60(4), 253–270. Retrieved from http://sandiegohistory.org/sites/default/files/journal/v60-4/v60-4engstrand.pdf

The WD-40 Company history: It all began in San Diego, California. (2009). Retrieved from Wd40company.com website: https://www.wd40company.com/our-company/our-history/

WD-40 History | Learn the Stories Behind the WD-40 Brand | WD-40. (n.d.). Retrieved August 5, 2020, from www.wd40.com website: https://www.wd40.com/history/#:~:text=The%20product%20made%20its%20first

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Think Tanks

Bill Krysinski 

Doctoral Research: Futuring and Innovation (CS875-2003C-01)

Unit 2 Discussion Board 3

Dr. Cynthia Calongne 

Aug 4, 2020

 

Think Tank Methods

Think tanks are usually associated with research, reviewing and helping to establish policy from everything from government regulations to social justice, from military issues, and everything in between. Their typical organizational structure contains subject matter experts, current and former executives, academics,  and some of the best researchers in their respected discipline. Their research helps to define the policies and influence decision-makers based on the discovery presented. Today we will review several group decision-making methods that think tanks can deploy based on the topics evaluated. Big Data and computer programming languages like R and Python are assisting data analysts with the processing and presentation of the large data sets that experts use for decision-making.  

Because decision making on complex topics is an inherently difficult process, consistency is critical for presenting the results of the decision made. The value-focused thinking methodology is ideally designed for helping decision-makers get “the means to an end” (Kweku-Muata Osei-Bryson & Ojelanki Ngwenyama, 2014). The process helps focus on what the decisions end goal should lead to and how to accomplish that goal. A significant difference with the value-focused approach is the weighing of value. Value is given a criterion and implemented in the algorithm. Also included in the calculation are alternatives and a means-end analysis. The final output for the value-focused thinking method generally creates better decisions.

One of the more commonly Multi-Criteria Decision Aid used today is TOPIS or “Technique of Order Preference Similarity to the Ideal Solution” (Papathanasiou & Ploskas, 2018). The goal of the TOPIS methodology is to review the criteria that will evaluate both the ideal and non-ideal decision to allow the decision-makers the insight on how the various measures can impact the ultimate decision. Papathanasiou and Ploskas (2018) discuss this process in six-steps that begin with the normalizing of the matrix, developing parameters for the weighted model, ending with the rank-ordering of output for the decision-makers to review. The beauty of this process is that it can be repeated and is consistent once the parameters established.  

There are many ways groups make decisions from up and downvotes, to gut instinct, from brainstorming and Delphi techniques, decision making is made better with more information. This information must be presented consistently and, ideally, repeatable. Big Data is the new standard in setting the foundation on which the decision is made. Techniques like TOPIS and value-focused thinking allow think tanks and groups to make more thoughtful decisions that may impact the lives of society in general.  

 

References

Kweku-Muata Osei-Bryson, & Ojelanki Ngwenyama. (2014). Advances in Research Methods for  

            Information Systems Research. Boston, Ma Springer US.

 

 

Papathanasiou, J., & Ploskas, N. (2018). Multiple Criteria Decision Aid. In Springer Optimization and Its Applications. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91648-4

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Group Research Methods

Bill Krysinski 

Doctoral Research: Futuring and Innovation (CS875-2003C-01)

Unit 2 Discussion Board 2

Dr. Cynthia Calongne 

July 28, 2020

 

Group Research Methods

Group decision making is the process of using the collective, instead of the individual, to participate in making a decision. There are several formalized techniques groups could use to participate in the process. While the Delphi technique is the most recognized of the group decision-making process, choosing what type of group decision method is determined by several factors. These factors include the decision needed, the expertise level of the individuals that are participating, and the amount of time allotted by the participants.      

The Delphi technique takes advantage of subject matter experts (SME) guidance by using anonymous questionnaires to make the decision.  These questionnaires are summarized and primarily used for forecasting with eh SME never meeting in a group setting. Thrope and Holt (2008) list the benefits of Delphi include can be repeated, SMEs use their expertise to share judgments, and researchers control the information path. This technique is only as effective as the communication of the expert. Researchers are heavily relying on the SME to be engaged in the questionnaire.            

The Nominal technique is similar to a traditional brainstorming session. Ideally, small groups of less than ten individuals meet to solve the predetermined problem. The goal of the Nominal group is to present solutions and then rank-order the solutions offered during the session (McKillip, 1987).   Unlike the Delphi method, group members do meet with each other and know what solutions were presented by whom. Nominal group members may or may not be considered experts in the problem reviewed.    

 

References

 

 

McKillip, J. (1987). Structured groups. In McKillip, J. Applied Social Research Methods: Need

analysis (pp. 86-94). Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications, Inc. doi:

10.4135/9781412985260

 

Thorpe, R., & Holt, R. (2008). The SAGE dictionary of qualitative management research (Vols.

1-0). London, : SAGE Publications Ltd doi: 10.4135/9780857020109

Technology and Trends

Bill Krysinski 

Doctoral Research: Futuring and Innovation (CS875-2003C-01)

Unit 2 Discussion Board 1

Dr. Cynthia Calongne 

July 28, 2020

 

One technology: Photogrammetry

With the decreasing cost, improved technology, seemingly easy to use form factors, the world of 3-D printing is becoming a technology for the masses. K-12 and post-secondary schools have adopted the use of 3-D printer technology. 3-D printing once considered a novelty, just as any new technology is, but educators quickly embraced the power of learning with tactile learning. With the help of 3-D printers and software, even forensic science can utilize the power of 3-D. Use of a technology known as photogrammetry- “using photographs…to create digital 3-D representations” (McFadden & Tynes, 2018). For instance, criminal justice experts can recreate automobile accidents using pictures to develop accurate depictions of the accident at various points along the accident timeline and then use a 3-D printer to create an exhibit for a court case. Architects can upload images and have 3-D internal and external views of buildings and use 3-D printers to make scalable models of clients to review.           

 

One key trend: Complexity of technology

Brooks and McCormack (2019) evaluated the top trends for the EDUCAUSE organization. The goal of this research project was to determine the impact of the various trends against the IT Strategy for Higher Education. This report identified five trends most influential, 17 that need to be addressed by administrators, 14 trends that should be considered, and 13 patterns that did have some impact on an institution (Brooks & McCormack, 2019).  “Increasing complexity of technology, architecture, and data ” seemed to have to most impact to an organization (Brooks & McCormack, 2019). Issues that Higher Education must come to grips with quickly and complicated decisions lie ahead. With institutions slashing staff, lacking the expertise to support the advanced technology, the speed at which technology moves, and many other realities, this will be a challenge for administrative staff at every level.   

 

 

 References

 Brooks, D. C., & McCormack, M. (2019). Higher Educations 2019 Trend Watch and Top 10 

       Strategic  Technologies. EDUCAUSE. Retrieved from                              

        https://library.educause.edu/-/media/files/library/2019/3/2019trendtech.pdf? 

         la=en&hash=8517530B7F43EE6CAFC706E24F85986B6BC0BD6F

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McF    McFadden, C., & Tynes, J. (2018, January 9). 7 Things You Should Know About Photogrammetry. Retrieved July 24, 2020, from library.educause.edu website: https://library.educause.edu/resources/2018/1/7-things-you-should-know-about-photogrammetry

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CS875- Futuring and Innovation

CS875 at Colorado Technical University is designed to make the scholar-practitioner open their minds and think critically about the future of technology in all aspects of our lives. This class helps researchers think about the future in terms of the possible, most likely, and the future we would like to live in. 

Looking to the future we can take advantage of intellectuals from TED Talks like Admad Qadir. 

Or look at modern-day podcasters discussing the future.